China Politics, Oil Needs Risk Conflict In S. China Sea

PRC's recent and ongoing escalation on this issue is highly provocative to say the least, and some experts having noted that the PRC has no intention of even "ceding an inch" indicates it's bellicose posture is both intentional and premeditated. 


When China was swept up in Confucianist fervor during the 15th Century, it destroyed its entire naval fleet and even forbade the private ownership of any vessels suitable for ocean voyage. Further, it made every effort to even destroy records of past trans-oceanic voyages to prevent future generations from venturing away from the motherland. In doing all this, China effectively quit all sovereignty claims to offshore lands.


Even if China wishes to visit the idea of reclaiming those islands a determination must first be made as to who has the legal authority to argue such a case before international bodies. If my memory serves me right, the ROC, when it ceded rule of the mainland of China, did not cede its claims to any outlying territories. And for its first 40-50 years, the PRC made no attempts to refute these claims. (I welcome any citation that can either support or refute the accuracy of my recollection).

Nationalistic fervor has always been something despotic regimes harnessed to legitimize their rule and to deflect public dissatisfaction away from domestic conditions and onto a foreign enemy. Quite often, this manipulation of public sentiment has ended with disastrous results.


It is somewhat understandable why the Communist Party has opted to exploit nationalism. The Party is poignantly aware that every dynasty is China was either overthrown by a foreign power or violently overthrown by a peasant uprising. But it should also keep in mind that the last dynasty to exploit nationalism, during the Boxer Rebellion, only ended up further humiliating a proud nation, increased foreign exploitation and likely only hastened the sponsor dynasty's end.


In the case of the PRC, there are several ways by which this recent rise in nationalism might cause outright conflicts both domestically or with its neighbors. In a conversation with a former senior US intelligence official, I learned that one of the greatest fears among the global powers is that a rogue midlevel PLA officer would engage in direct military skirmish with a neighbor. While there is relative confidence that the PLA's senior officers are disciplined enough to not escalate any conflict unilaterally, some of the new rising officers are not as well known. Even some within the Communist Party, there are concerns that the new corp of officer is not disciplined and is more power hungry than their career military men predecessors. This is partly due to the recent filling of the officer ranks by some  princelings through connections, rather than merit-based, appointments.


On the domestic front, this rise in nationalism leads me to think that while the PRC should move towards a liberalized multi-party democracy, the most likely second party after the ruling Communist Party would be an ultra-nationalist, proto-facist one. Such a party could be a serious challenger to the communists and would likely sideline a more liberal and reform-minded party. As such, the Communist Party would have no option but to move further into nationalistic posturing to maintain its base.


The rise of nationalism in China is a powder keg. One that can derail its steady march toward economic and political development. There doesn't seem to be as yet many pivots that the West can do to try to ease this dynamic into something  productive or just more benign.